LuaCat Oracle

Prediction × outcome

Every Oracle analysis is published with a deadline and checked afterwards. This page exists so that our hit rate is verifiable, not just a claim. Analyses that are still open show up here too — otherwise we could leave the misses unchecked forever to inflate the scoreboard.

97out of 100

Thermometer score — Excellent calibration

The Oracle gets it right and, when it misses, it had already warned the odds were low.

Getting it right at 90% is worth 99 points; getting it wrong at 90% is worth 19. Someone answering 50% to everything would score 75 — that's the line we need to beat for the thermometer to mean anything. Our average bet so far: 83%.

Hit rate
100%
Right
3
Wrong
0
Partial
0
No outcome
0
Open
47

Based on 3 analyses already checked. A partial hit counts as half a point.

Already checked

Still open