LuaCat Oracle

Prediction × outcome

Every Oracle analysis is published with a deadline and checked afterwards. This page exists so that our hit rate is verifiable, not just a claim. Analyses that are still open show up here too — otherwise we could leave the misses unchecked forever to inflate the scoreboard.

Hit rate by rating

We don't give a probability number. So this is how the Oracle is held to account: what it calls high possibility must happen more often than what it calls low.

  • High possibility78% right in 27 analyses
  • Moderate possibility0% right in 5 analyses
  • Low possibilitynone checked yet

So far this holds: the higher the rating, the more often the Oracle is right.

Hit rate
66%
Right
21
Wrong
11
Partial
0
No outcome
8
Open
41

Based on 32 analyses already checked. A partial hit counts as half a point.

Already checked

Still open